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December 2025 Southern Ontario Real Estate Market Report.
Dated: January 18 2026
Views: 427
December 2025 Southern Ontario Real Estate Market Report
What's Really Happening Across the GTA, Hamilton, and Waterloo Region
Executive Summary
Southern Ontario's real estate market in December 2025 remains firmly buyer-tilted, with high inventory levels, softening prices, and subdued sales activity across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Hamilton, and Waterloo Region. Average home prices dipped slightly month-over-month and year-over-year, driven by elevated mortgage rates and seasonal slowdowns, creating opportunities for buyers while challenging sellers.
December 2025 data confirms a balanced-to-buyer's market throughout the GTHWA, as sales-to-new-listings ratios hovered near 42%, well below seller-favored levels. Home sales fell 9.5-15% year-over-year in key areas, with new listings up 3-17%, extending average days on market to 39-50 days.
Average prices held steady but trended downward: GTA at around $1,051,711 (down 6.2% YoY), Hamilton-Burlington at $688K-$855K (down or flat MoM), and Waterloo Region at $713K (down across types). Compared to November 2025, sales dropped further seasonally, but inventory rose 13-17% YoY, offering more choice.
42%
Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio
13-17%
Inventory Increase YoY
39-50
Average Days on Market
6.2%
GTA Price Decline YoY
Key Questions Answered
Is Southern Ontario a buyer's market in December 2025? Yes, with sales below 10-year averages and ample supply favoring negotiators.
Are prices rising or falling? Flat to declining MoM/YoY, especially condos and detached homes.
Sales vs. last year? Down 14.8-39% regionally, reflecting caution amid high rates.
Regional Breakdown
City of Toronto
Sales declined amid high listings, with core condos softening most. Average price held near $1M but eased month-over-month; transit-accessible pockets remained resilient. This market presents unique opportunities for first-time buyers who know how to navigate the current conditions.
Peel Region (Mississauga, Brampton)
Relative affordability drew buyers, with negotiation room expanding. Prices flat to down YoY, inventory up, making Peel a value spot.
| Metric | Dec 2025 | MoM Change | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avg Price | $900K | -1-2% | -5% |
York Region (Markham, Vaughan, Aurora, Newmarket, King City)
Ample inventory balanced conditions; prices stable but with longer DOM. Newmarket and Aurora offered family buyer appeal with mild softening.
Markham/Vaughan: Sales down, listings up 15% YoY.
Aurora/Newmarket: Attractive for upsizers seeking space, leading investor town rankings for 2026.
Durham Region (Pickering, Ajax, Whitby, Oshawa, Clarington)
Best value for end-users; prices down YoY, supply growth favored aggressive offers. Luxury segments slowed, with longer marketing times; overall balanced.
Halton Region (Oakville, Milton)
Luxury segments slowed, with longer marketing times; overall balanced market conditions prevailed.
Hamilton-Burlington
Favors buyers strongly. Sales down 15-39% YoY, inventory up 13-17%. Benchmark: Hamilton $688K (declined), Burlington $855K (flat MoM, -10% YoY).
| Area | Sales YoY | Inventory YoY | Benchmark Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hamilton | -15% | +13% | $688K |
| Burlington | -39% | +17% | $855K |
Top buyer neighborhoods: Hamilton core, Stoney Creek for affordability.
Waterloo Region (Kitchener, Waterloo, Cambridge)
Sales at 465 (Nov data extending), down 14.8% YoY and 25% below 10-year avg. Avg price $713K.
| Housing Type | Avg Price | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| Detached | $827K | -4.3% |
| Townhomes | $595K | -3.1% |
| Condos | $422K | -6.3% |
| Semis | $635K | -1.4% |
Inventory: 1,757 active (+15.6% YoY), DOM 39 days (+12 YoY). Kitchener-Cambridge ideal for families.
Housing Type Performance
Biggest shifts: Hamilton prices down most; Durham/Waterloo inventory gains biggest. Townhomes and semis showed stability, while condos and detached faced pressure.
Detached Homes
Largest adjustments, down 4.3% in Waterloo; stable freeholds in GTA. Highest days on market across all property types.
Condos
Strong buyer leverage, down 6.3% in Waterloo, headwinds in Toronto investor areas. Investor-heavy surplus creating opportunities.
Semis & Townhomes
Sweet spot—minimal drops (1.4-3.1%), better demand. Steady performance makes these property types attractive for strategic buyers.
| Type | Demand Shift | Supply Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Detached | Softening | Highest DOM |
| Condos | Low | Investor-heavy surplus |
| Town/Semi | Stable | Balanced sales |
Influencing Factors
Elevated mortgage rates constrained budgets, keeping sales subdued despite latent demand. Supply rose sharply (SNLR 42%), easing pressure. Understanding these factors is crucial for making informed decisions in 2026's market outlook.
Interest Rates
High rates biggest drag; no major cuts by Dec 2025 limited qualification.
Other Factors
Immigration: Steady but affordability pushed buyers outward.
Supply Constraints: Easing with record listings.
Policy: Provincial housing targets unmet, but more choice emerged. The impact of Canada's 2025 budget continues to shape market dynamics.
Market Sentiment
Buyer confidence grew with options, enabling aggressive offers; sellers priced sharply or risked longer DOM. December 2025 psychology: Relief in Hamilton/Waterloo after years of competition, caution in GTA core. Motivated sellers accepted near-ask prices quickly.
Forward Outlook
Expect sideways pricing into Q4 2025/Q1 2026, with mild softening pockets unless rates ease. Latent demand could activate; good time to buy in buyer's markets like Hamilton/Waterloo, strategic for sellers with pro pricing. For a comprehensive view, check our Q4 2025 market snapshot.
Is it a good time to buy/sell?
Buy: Yes—leverage now with increased negotiating power.
Sell: With data-driven strategy and realistic pricing to compete effectively.
Why Work with Deepak Raj at Royal Canadian Realty
Deepak Raj at Royal Canadian Realty delivers hyper-local expertise across GTA, Hamilton, and Waterloo, tailored to December 2025's buyer-tilted conditions. Real-time insights from regional boards guide precise timing amid high inventory.
Key Strengths in This Market
Negotiation Strategies
Secured deals below ask in softening segments like condos (e.g., 5-7% savings in Waterloo).
Tailored Guidance
First-time buyers navigate rates via options like rent-to-own; sellers get sharp pricing to beat 39+ DOM. If you're exploring nearby markets, learn about the top 5 neighbourhoods in Barrie for families.
Marketing Innovation
AI-powered listings maximize exposure in low-sales winter.
Transparency
Data-driven reports mirror this update, spotting trends like Hamilton's 13% inventory surge.
For Newmarket locals and beyond, Deepak's client-centric approach solves inventory puzzles and unlocks value—contact for your December 2025 GTA housing market update.
Serving Locations
Mississauga Office
Unit 1 - 2896 Slough St
Mississauga, ON L4T 1G3
Serving Peel Region & West GTA
Markham Office
Suite 206 - 3 Centre St
Markham, ON L3P 3P9
Serving York Region, Durham Region & North/East GTA
Kitchener Office
Suite 2B - 625 King St E
Kitchener, ON N2G 2M2
Serving Waterloo Region
Hamilton Office
Suite 300 - 163 Centennial Pkwy N
Hamilton, ON L8E 1H8
Serving Hamilton-Burlington Area
Deepak Raj
Deepak Raj is a professional Real Estate Agent in Newmarket with Royal Canadian Realty, proudly serving home buyers, sellers, investors, and business owners across Newmarket, Aurora, Markham, Stouffvi....
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